如何评价美国一战的总统威尔逊？ 第1页

对威尔逊的评价，总是离不开他对各种被压迫族群的态度：美国黑人，东欧小民族，殖民地与半殖民地人民，等等。本篇回答意在通过比较威尔逊对“三个世界”各自的被压迫民族的态度，来评价威尔逊：

在第一世界，威尔逊作为南方民主党人，本能地相信白人的优越性，支持种族隔离；同时威尔逊翼赞美国对菲律宾的殖民统治，认为菲律宾人的文明水准还不配独立建国。不过，他相信菲律宾有朝一日能在美国的“支持”下达到这一水准，届时美国应允许菲律宾独立，这也是后来“国际托管”思想的渊源。这种文明等级论的思想也被应用在他对美国黑人的态度上：黑人的文明水准尚未达到白人的水平，所以还无法达到完全的种族平等。有朝一日黑人达到了这一水准，种族问题自然就会消失。

在第二世界，威尔逊对欧洲大陆上的多民族旧帝国重拳出击：威尔逊把东欧的那些领土连续，多民族杂居的旧帝国（帝俄、奥匈、奥斯曼）视为欧洲的动乱之源，把民族国家视为和平与公义的保障。同时，他本人很担心所谓的“苏俄对斯拉夫人的感召”，所以在战后领土分配中有意偏袒（西/南）斯拉夫人，希望以此吸引他们心向西方。但东欧的新生民族国家之间有着激烈的领土争端，在调解这些纠纷的过程中，威尔逊逐渐意识到了“民族自决”在实践中的困难，他意识到了民族分布并没有明确的边界，所以划分国界时必须“毛估估”（approximate）。同时他还幻想能有一个保护民族国家中的少数族裔的国际机制，这些构想，至少短期来看都失败了。

在第三世界，威尔逊麾下的战时宣传部门工作过于得力，把民族自决的福音传遍了（不属于威尔逊预期受众的）殖民地与半殖民地世界，威尔逊因此被殖民地民族主义者寄予厚望。但威尔逊本人不太关心亚非的民族解放，并认为殖民地诸民族的文明发展水平没有达到能够独立建国的水平，所以需要“国际托管”，以“辅助”他们达到相应的文明水准，这在事实上放纵英法海外殖民帝国的压迫。殖民地民族运动随后的幻灭感，促成了1919年的全球反殖民抗议浪潮，沉重打击了各海外殖民帝国的统治，五四运动、三一运动、阿姆利则惨案，都是这一全球反帝浪潮的一部分。短期来看，这些抗争都失败了，但长期来看，这一全球反帝浪潮沉重打击了殖民统治的合法性，也促成了殖民地反帝运动的激进化。

第一世界：种族主义者威尔逊

Such services are often rendered by the men in the New England colleges, but it seems to me that the matter is entirely different where menial service of that kind is ordinarily rendered by negroes. There should I think be an inevitable loss of self respect associated with such work.

前段时间，普林斯顿大学宣布，基于威尔逊的种族主义思想，将去除其两个下属学院的威尔逊冠名：

Wilson’s racism was significant and consequential even by the standards of his own time. He segregated the federal civil service after it had been racially integrated for decades, thereby taking America backward in its pursuit of justice. He not only acquiesced in but added to the persistent practice of racism in this country, a practice that continues to do harm today.

普林斯顿的做法确实是有理有据的，威尔逊作为普林斯顿校长和美国总统，其政策与言行中都有不少种族主义印记。

在普林斯顿校长任上，威尔逊没有作出任何招收黑人学生的姿态，而同时代的其他知名美国大学，不少已经出现一些零星的黑人毕业生，威尔逊的解释是：

“普林斯顿没有任何禁止黑人入学的规定，但这里气质与传统就是如此，以至于甚至没有黑人试图申请过入学。”
there is nothing in the law of the University to prevent a negro’s entering, the whole temper and tradition of the place are such that no negro has ever applied for admission.

在给友人的一封回信中，他反对新英格兰大学生兼职做餐厅服务员，认为“这种有失自尊的劳动一般属于黑人”：

I would say that my judgment is altogether against the suggestion you make that students should wait upon the tables. Such services are often rendered by the men in the New England colleges, but it seems to me that the matter is entirely different where menial service of that kind is ordinarily rendered by negroes. There should I think be an inevitable loss of self respect associated with such work.

从家庭和政党背景上看，威尔逊也属于种族歧视倾向普遍比较严重的群体。威尔逊家族出身南方，其父是长老会牧师。在内战中，美国长老会一分为二，其父参与了邦联长老会的创建。威尔逊本人属于南方民主党，也是内战后第一位南方出身的总统，而南方民主党是坚决支持种族隔离的。

不过，尽管威尔逊私下有诸多歧视言论，但在他1912年竞选总统时，却得到了激进派黑人运动的支持。这是因为温和派黑人运动自内战以来一直支持共和党，却在促进黑人权益上并不积极，所以激进派想要改换门庭。不过很快，黑人激进派就会意识到支持威尔逊是多么错误。

在威尔逊当选之前的十几年里，财政部中的“国库注册员”（Register of the Treasury）一职通常留给黑人，国库注册员的签名会出现在当时的美元纸币上。威尔逊刚当选时，本打算遵循惯例，继续指定一名黑人，作为国库注册员，但国会中的南方民主党人借此事散布恐慌，暗示黑人上级会对下级白女动手动脚，所以威尔逊放弃了任命黑人国库注册员的计划。此后，联邦政府机关内部的种族隔离进一步强化，威尔逊则听之任之。

国库注册员事件后，此前支持威尔逊的黑人激进派活动家特罗特 (William Monroe Trotter) 对此非常恼火，去白宫找威尔逊理论。威尔逊用“隔离但平等”的话术洗地，当特罗特威胁若威尔逊不能终止联邦政府内的种族隔离，黑人运动将不再支持威尔逊政府。威尔逊认为这是“勒索” (blackmail)，并把特罗特逐出了白宫：

[Trotter] Mr. President, I hope that you don't feel toward me as you did a little while ago. I think you made a mistake. I assume great responsibility in the whole matter.
[Wilson] But that part we must leave out. Politics must be left out, because don't you see, to put it plainly, that is a form of blackmail. I am only saying that you are conscious of that, or that you would tell me contrary to that. But you must reflect that, when you call upon an officer and say that you can't get certain votes if you don't do certain things, that is the kind of course which ought never to be attempted. I would resent it from one set of men as from another. You can vote as you please, provided I am perfectly sure that I am doing the right thing at the right time.

威尔逊与日本的「人种差别撤废提案」

1919年的巴黎和会上，日本代表团提议在国联章程中加入种族平等的条款，即【人种的差别撤废提案】。日本的提案有相当复杂的国内动机：原敬内阁想要说服朝野中质疑国联的反西方思潮，来推进在国内形成支持加入国联的共识。外务省想要摆脱元老与军部的钳制，所以想要借机推进英美废除歧视日裔移民的政策，以加强自己的话语权。日本国内舆论希望本国的列强地位能得到英美的尊重（美英排斥日裔移民，并在移民法中将日裔与华裔，印度裔等并列的规定很伤日本人的自尊）。

英国本来对这个议题并不上心，但澳大利亚强烈反对人种差别撤废提案，主张这一提案一旦通过，日裔移民将淹没澳大利亚。这里必须提一下“白澳政策”，澳洲白人长期有种“有色人种海洋中的孤岛”的危机感，对有色人种移民的敌意远胜英国本土，当时澳洲所有政党都在用种族议题来拉票，时任总理威廉·雨果也不例外。在他的强烈反对下，英联邦代表团宣布不支持种族差别撤废提案。

威尔逊起初对这一提案也并没有什么明显的态度，其首要目标是促成国联成立。英联邦的反对促使威尔逊要求种族差别撤废提案必须经过和会全体代表一致通过方能成立，也就在事实上给提案判了死刑。国联可以没有种族平等，但不能没有英联邦，这就是威尔逊的决策逻辑。美国国内当时也有人借反对日裔移民来对付威尔逊和国联理想，但其实这对当时威尔逊决策的影响不大，远不如英国反对的份量。

但在当时，有许多人认为人种差别撤废提案与山东问题相关，中美皆有。他们认为日本是将种族议题作为一个筹码，来换取美国对日本在山东权益的承认。这种说法很难成立，日本在山东的势力范围在当时已经是既成事实，并且在战时得到了英法在秘密协议中的承认，美国很难彻底推翻之，所以日本没有用这个议题换取美国承认的必要。更何况，山东问题与几万日裔法律地位的筹码分量天差地别，很难想象二者能够交换。

美国黑人运动也了解到了日本的撤废提案，许多黑人对日本因此抱有好感，也有些黑人指出了日本在中韩的压迫。但其实对美英日三方的代表和国内主流舆论的认知来说，黑人问题从来就不是人种差别撤废提案的一部分，日裔移民问题（对于英美），日本国内的民族情绪，原敬内阁想要摆平国联怀疑论的目标才是。

同一时期，美国多地发生了种族暴动，日本媒体对此多有报道，并与美国拒绝人种差别撤废提案，以及美国舆论对日本在山东权益的反对联系在一起，用于揭穿美国的虚伪。

但是为了维护美国的灯塔形象，威尔逊还是会在公开场合斥责针对黑人的私刑：

We proudly claim to be the champions of democracy [but] every American who takes part in the actions of a mob [is] its betrayer, and does more to discredit her by that single disloyalty to her standards of law and of right than the words of her statesmen or the sacrifices of her heroic boys in the trenches can do to make suffering people believe her to be their savior. How shall we commend democracy to the acceptance of other peoples, if we disgrace our own by proving that it is, after all, no protection to the weak?

这种思路后来在冷战中进一步发扬光大，反制苏联宣传与拉拢第三世界国家的外交需要，成为了在美国政治体制内部推进民权改革的重要论据^[1]。不过，针对种族问题的国际舆论战（或者伪装成外宣的内宣），本身倒也不是一战或者冷战才有，旧大陆多民族帝国和美英法海外殖民帝国之间关于民族/种族问题的宣传战，一路从19世纪打到了当代，所以某宫廷画师事件可以说是毫不新鲜。此处还请欣赏一下帝俄胡锡进М. Н. Катков的洗地话术：

《波兰叛乱不是人民的叛乱，而是贵族和教士的叛乱 Польское восстание не есть восстание народа, а восстание шляхты и духовенства》 ：

波兰暴乱完全不是一场人民的起义——暴动的不是人民，而是贵族和教士。这不是争取 自由的斗争，而是争夺权力的阴谋——他们妄图以少数人统治多数人。整场豹乱，包括它的 开端和发展，都仅仅只是一场阴谋。贪恋权力的波兰贵族想要统治俄罗斯人民，他们得到 了同样贪恋权力、想要奴役东正教会的天主教教士们的支持。二者狼狈为奸结为联盟，野心勃勃贪得无厌。
…
波兰耶稣会的阴谋正向俄罗斯、向俄罗斯人民和俄罗斯东正教会施加无与伦比的危害...... 暴徒们如果觉得他们能得到西方势力的支持，那就大错特错了，西方视力如果去帮波兰人的忙，那他们一定会后悔。我们不会忘记1831年，俄罗斯的军队摧毁了波兰的豹乱......这三十年来我们变得更加强大，我们的社会生活取得了重大的进步......1831 年欧洲势力没有介入波兰问题，然而现在他们却找借口来伤害俄罗斯的民族情感。如果现在波兰问题有无比之 少的一点点成功希望的话，那便全部来自欧洲外交官们决定给予它的支持。外国势力的介入越活跃，这点儿希望会越大，但是恐怕俄国人民的情感会愈加坚定。

《波兰问题 Польский вопрос》

在政治世界中，没有什么比普市价值和抽象的公式（指下文中的民族自决和不干涉原则）更具有欺骗性的了。这些概念本身就已经死了，含混不清......不干涉原则没能阻止西方视力去干涉意大利事务，民族自决原则也没能阻止法国吞并尼斯——根据上述原则，尼斯和威尼斯一样，完全应当属于意大利。
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不要跟英国人谈印度人民的权利，就像不要跟法国人谈阿尔及尔人民的权利一样，他们会 觉得你疯了...当英国镇压印度兵的的怒火时，欧洲媒体有为他们的民族权利而哭泣吗？有哭喊着同情这些阴险而强大的不列颠所制造的受害者吗?法国的公共舆论会为印度叛乱者的 成功而喝彩，会欣赏他们复仇的怒火吗?

第二世界：对旧大陆多民族帝国重拳出击

在战前，威尔逊对东欧没什么了解，奥匈大使认为他对东欧地理极其无知。当选前的威尔逊对东欧民族也没什么好话，在他1902年出版的《美国人民史》（History of the American People）中，有这么一段贬低东欧移民的段落：

...men of the meaner sort of Hungary and Poland, men out of the ranks where there was neither skill nor intelligence.

后来在总统选举中，这一段被他的竞选对手挖出来，威尔逊为此不得不向东欧移民选民道歉。后面会讲到，在巴黎和会的东欧安排中，威尔逊的谈话中还是能显现出对斯拉夫人的偏见。不过首先，威尔逊在东欧最著名的事业是支持民族国家，反对旧帝国，这里需要先讲一下威尔逊东欧观的源流。

最初，威尔逊的东欧观是源自于他对奥斯曼帝国的厌恶。他的青年时代正值1877年的俄土战争。那一年，保加利亚爆发了反对奥斯曼统治的起义，奥斯曼军队在镇压过程中犯下了许多暴行，震惊了欧洲舆论，俄国威胁要对此进行干涉。英国政坛围绕是否要保卫奥斯曼帝国爆发了激烈的争论，保守党的迪斯雷利出于地缘政治考量，主张保卫奥斯曼；而自由派的格拉德斯通，青年威尔逊的偶像，则四处宣传突厥人对保加利亚人的屠杀 (Bulgarian Horror), 认为突厥人是“文明之癌”，必须被彻底逐出欧洲，而英国作为文明国家有义务支持这一事业：

Let the Turks now carry away their abuses in the only possible manner, namely by carrying off themselves. Their Zaptiehs and their Mudirs, their Bimbashis and their Yuzbachis, their Kaimakams and their Pashas, one and all, bag and baggage, shall, I hope, clear out from the province they have desolated and profaned. This thorough riddance, this most blessed deliverance, is the only reparation we can make to the memory of those heaps on heaps of dead; to the violated purity alike of matron, of maiden, and of child; to the civilisation which has been affronted and shamed; to the laws of God or, if you like, of Allah; to the moral sense of mankind at large.

崇拜格拉德斯通的青年威尔逊写下了这么一段文字：

We believe that Mr. Disraeli’s influence on English politics has been almost unmixedly bad. From first to last he has fought for his own hand, and we are unable to trace in the windings of his erratic course any connecting clue of principle. We do not accuse him of deliberate treachery to his convictions, because in our opinion his ill-assorted stock of many-coloured theories never deserved so honourable a name. The man who has never known what it is to believe is secure from the imputation of apostasy. But we do charge him with pretending to the high title of statesman, without that faith in a governing idea, that allegiance to a worthy cause, that serious sincerity of purpose, that single-minded and self-forgetful fervour, which alone dignify public life and make the profession of politics respectable.

这种开化使命与锄强扶弱理想相结合，并以其为外交原则的意识形态，促使威尔逊主张解体奥斯曼帝国，并最终将这一原则推广到欧洲的所有多民族帝国。在17年初美国刚对德国宣战时，尽管美国与奥斯曼帝国之间没有正式宣战，但在解体奥斯曼帝国这一点上，威尔逊远比其他西方盟国要激进。一位比利时外交官如是回忆他与威尔逊的谈话——多民族帝国=马蜂窝（hornet’s nest）

Wilson spoke incidentally of the question of the Near East. “Turkey, that mass of different races, is a veritable hornet’s nest which keeps Europe always in alarm. It is necessary to find a remedy there, but the solution of the problem has not yet been found.” The President did not want to formulate his opinion on the opportunity which might come to expel the Turks from Europe, but he said that, in all events, the Straits ought to become an international [water]way.

但对于奥匈帝国，起初威尔逊并不支持解体。美国对德宣战是在17年2月，但直到当年12月才对奥匈宣战。在1917年初，威尔逊认为，协约国此前表现出了过强的解体奥匈的意愿，迫使本来战斗意志不高的奥匈为了保全自己而拒不单独议和。关于中东欧的小民族，威尔逊认为像匈牙利，波西米亚等“older units” 已经在奥匈框架下获得了足够的自治，足以保证欧洲和平。当务之急是消除奥匈当局对协约国的解体威胁的焦虑，促成奥匈尽快撇开德国单独议和。1917年2月，兰辛如是转达了威尔逊的思路

The chief if not the only obstacle [to peace] is the threat apparently contained in the peace terms recently stated by the Entente Allies that in case they succeeded they would insist upon a virtual dismemberment of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Austria needs only to be reassured on that point, and that chiefly with regard to the older units of the Empire. It is the President’s view that the large measure of autonomy already secured by those older units is a sufficient guarantee of peace and stability in that part of Europe. . . . The President still believes and has reason to believe that, were it possible for him to give the necessary assurances to the government of Austria, which fears radical dismemberment and which thinks that it is now fighting for its very existence, he could in a very short time force the acceptance of peace upon terms which would follow the general lines of his recent address to the Senate regarding the sort of peace the United States would be willing to join in guaranteeing.

为了支持单独议和计划，美国政府不仅需要给予奥匈基本的安全感，还需要说服国内选民，让国内舆论相信奥匈不是那么邪恶，应该得到宽大。在7月的国庆演讲中，威尔逊将奥匈与第二帝国做了切割：

The war was begun by the military masters of Germany, who proved to be also the masters of Austria-Hungary. These men have never regarded nations as peoples, men, women, and children of like blood and frame as themselves, for whom governments existed and in whom governments had their life. They have regarded them merely as serviceable organizations which they could by force or intrigue bend or corrupt to their own purpose.

在17年12月的国情咨文演讲中，威尔逊虽然呼吁国会批准向奥匈宣战，但仍将之视为“有改造希望的从犯”，被“邪恶的普鲁士”裹挟进战争。

We do not wish in any way to impair or to rearrange the Austro-Hungarian Empire. It is no affair of ours what they do with their own life, either industrially or politically. We do not purpose or desire to dictate to them in any way. We only desire to see that their affairs are left in their own hands.
...
Austria-Hungary is for the time being not her own mistress but simply the vassal of the German Government. We must face the facts as they are and act upon them without sentiment in this stern business. The Government of Austria and Hungary is not acting upon its own initiative or in response to the wishes and feelings of its own peoples, but as the instrument of another nation. We must meet its force with our own and regard the Central Powers as but one. The war can be successfully conducted in no other way.

即使在被后世奉为民族自决圣经的《十四点和平原则》（18年1月）中，威尔逊除了支持波兰建国以外，也并没有直接使用“self-determination”一词，更没有直接要求解体：

X. The people of Austria-Hungary, whose place among the nations we wish to see safeguarded and assured, should be accorded the freest opportunity to autonomous development.
...
XIII. An independent Polish state should be erected which should include the territories inhabited by indisputably Polish populations, which should be assured a free and secure access to the sea, and whose political and economic independence and territorial integrity should be guaranteed by international covenant.

相对于第十三条斩钉截铁地支持波兰独立，第十条明显存在和稀泥的空间，“freest opportunity to autonomous development”完全可以解释成旧帝国框架内的自治，而不必然要求解体。

这种暧昧的提法，其实意在对哈布斯堡施加压力，以迫使哈布斯堡与协约国单独议和。此时的威尔逊还在通过中立国的渠道与哈布斯堡沟通，并未想到奥匈会如此迅速的解体，仍把哈布斯堡当作一个适格的谈判对象。但有这么几个因素最终破坏奥匈与美国的和谈：

第一，奥匈议会不支持单独媾和。在俄国被击败，布尔什维克政府内部最终达成退出战争的共识后，同盟国内部的一些决策层对战争前景颇为乐观。

第二，英法不支持对奥匈单独媾和。英法决策层认为，如果不能给奥匈境内的各斯拉夫民族以足够有力的承诺，斯拉夫民族运动则有可能被奥匈所统战。另外，英法在战争初期向意大利秘密许诺了亚得里亚海沿岸的奥匈领土，单独媾和很可能会使意大利当局的预期落空，进而影响其战争意愿，而英法认为意大利对协约国的最终胜利至关重要。英国外长贝尔福如是说：

As far as it goes this scheme is in harmony with the principles laid down by the President and might therefore form a starting point for discussions. But there are two very serious objections. In the first place it ignores Italy and in the second place, unless it is very carefully handled, it may alienate the subject races of Austria whom the President desires to help. Various Slav peoples have so often been fooled by the phrase “self government” that they will be disposed to regard all schemes which are so described as giving them the old slavery under a new name.
...
The future of the war largely depends on supporting Italian enthusiasm and on maintaining [the] anti-German zeal of [the] Slav population in Austria. Both Italians and Slavs are very easily discouraged and are quick to find evidence in foreign speeches that their interests are forgotten or betrayed. I fear that Austrian statesmanship will not be above using any indication that the President has a tenderness for the Austrian Empire as a means of convincing the Slavs that they have nothing to hope for from the Allies and had best make terms with the Central Powers.

第三，也是决定性的一击，18年4月，克列门梭泄露了卡尔通过其妻兄与法国进行的秘密谈判内容，使哈布斯堡皇室颜面扫地，不得不更依附于德国，卡尔与威尔逊的谈判则不了了之。

随着单独媾和计划的冷却，以国务卿兰辛为首的一些幕僚开始游说威尔逊支持解体奥匈，威尔逊逐渐接受了。但第一击却不是美国打出的，18年8月初，英法意大就承认了捷克斯洛伐克民族大会作为交战方，而美国拖到了9月初才承认。这一时期的英国外交官和威尔逊的一些幕僚甚至都怀疑威尔逊可能对奥匈过于怀柔。

到了18年10月，奥匈在阿尔卑斯战线彻底崩溃，保加利亚也在马其顿战场溃退。卡尔此时绝望地试图通过教宗重启对美媾和的渠道。但这一切都为时已晚，不用协约国直接干涉，奥匈已经开始自行解体。

一年后，威尔逊在为批准凡尔赛和约与加入国联而在全美巡回演讲，才开始把针对奥斯曼的“多民族帝国-有罪”的观念，公开移植到奥匈和帝俄的前领土上，指出多民族帝国是动乱之源：

The Austro-Hungarian Empire, was held together by military force and consisted of peoples who did not want to live together, who did not have the spirit of nationality as towards each other, who were constantly chafing at the bands that held them.
…
And the heart and center of this treaty is that it sets at liberty people all over Europe and in Asia who have hitherto been enslaved by powers which were not their rightful sovereigns and masters. So long as wrongs of that sort exist, you ought not to bring permanent peace to the world, because those wrongs ought to be righted, and enslaved peoples ought to be freed to right them.

威尔逊如是给选民上地理课：

Upon Poland center some of the dangers of the future. And south of Poland is Bohemia, which we cut away from the Austrian combination. And below Bohemia is Hungary, which can no longer rely upon the assistant strength of Austria, and below her is an enlarged Rumania. Alongside of Rumania is the new Slavic kingdom that never could have won its own independence, which chafed under the chains of Austria-Hungary, but never could throw them off. We have said: “The fundamental wrongs of history center in these regions. These people have the right to govern their own country and control their own fortunes.”

此时东欧的主要矛盾已不再是民族主义与旧帝国的对立，而是民族国家之间的边界问题。于是，民族国家之间就得争夺威尔逊的“宠幸”，而威尔逊表现出了对斯拉夫人的特别“偏爱”。在意大利与塞尔维亚关于达尔马提亚的争端中，他站在塞尔维亚一边，主张英法承诺战后分配达尔马提亚给意大利的承诺，是预设奥匈继续存在的前提下签订的，既然奥匈乙烷，意大利也就不应该再要求这么一个“缓冲区”了。他同时还把达尔马提亚比作阿尔萨斯-洛林，认为意大利一旦夺取了该地，就会制造无尽的民族仇恨，甚至是下一场世界大战。

而在波兰与德国关于上西里西亚的争端中，威尔逊出于对波兰的偏爱，拒绝了他一贯主张的公投方案，认为在西里西亚，日尔曼人的政治经济优势地位会妨碍当地波兰人表达自己的真实意愿。但威尔逊的真实动机其实就是，威尔逊对西里西亚的波兰人口比例信心不大，不认为公投对波兰有多少胜算，所以就找借口拒绝公投，暗合了波兰人的立场。最终，上西里西亚的归属是由两族准军事部队之间的战斗决定的，而非公投。

这种对斯拉夫人的“偏爱”，其实是出自一个很迫真的逻辑，威尔逊认为：如果斯拉夫人不满和约的领土分配，他们就会背弃西方，倒向布尔什维克。所以，西方必须满足斯拉夫人的领土愿望，把他们保留在西方阵营:

Wilson : There is a fatal antagonism between the Italians and the Slavs. If the Slavs have the feeling of an injustice, that will make the chasm unbridgeable and will open the road to Russian influence and to the formation of a Slavic bloc hostile to western Europe.

Lloyd George : I do not think that this sentiment would be pro voked by the cession of certain islands.
Lloyd George : The Slav is a force that one can not control; he can be the instrument of the worst tyranny or the bloodiest anarchy; he can become a terrible danger for the world. Moreover, we must not forget the ties of race which unite the Slavs of Russia and the Slavs of southeastern Europe. If I were Italian, I would not like to see the Slavs on that coast across from my country . . .

Wilson : What makes the Slav less formidable than the German is that he has not attained the same degree of organization. . . . Germany has a more complete system of education than any other country; if Russia was capable of doing as much, she would be irresistible. But in many respects she is backward. . .In my opinion, of the dangers which threaten Italy, the most serious would be the discontent of the Slavs.

可以看到，在威尔逊与劳合·乔治的谈话中，双方都预设斯拉夫人是野蛮而危险的民族。劳合·乔治认为，因为斯拉夫人的危险性，所以意大利人应该在达尔马提亚获得一个缓冲区，来化解斯拉夫人对意大利本土的威胁。相反，威尔逊则认为，正因为斯拉夫人的危险性，所以西方国家不应该得罪斯拉夫人，尤其是不能让斯拉夫人被俄国统战。可以说尽管威尔逊在竞选中为此前歧视东欧人的言论道歉过，尽管他与斯拉夫各民族运动活动家多有交往，威尔逊终其一生还是对斯拉夫人抱有偏见的。

另外，威尔逊的个人偏向很大程度上还取决于他与斯拉夫民族活动家的私人交往。波兰裔钢琴家帕德雷夫斯基，以及捷克民族运动领袖马萨里克，在战前就与威尔逊有不少往来。波兰建国后多次爆发了迫害周边民族与少数族裔的丑闻，尤其是对立陶宛，乌克兰和犹太人。帕德雷夫斯基多次向威尔逊致信，为波兰辩护（洗地）。当威尔逊考虑制裁波兰时，他也颇为担心伤害这位钢琴家的民族感情。马萨里克则在游说威尔逊承认捷克为交战国的过程中多有影响。

威尔逊也认识到，在多民族杂居的东欧，终究是有一些人群是会落在其民族国家边界之外，成为另一个民族国家的少数民族。

The one people have not stopped at a sharp line, and the settlements of the other people, or their migrations, begun at that sharp line; they have intermingled. There are regions where you can’t draw a national line and say there are Slavs on this side and Italians on that. There is this people there and that people there. It can’t be done. You have to approximate the line.

但他对少数族群保护的解决方案却相当理想主义，甚至可以说有些天真：

The Jews in the United States of America, Great Britain, France or Italy were treated just the same as anyone else. The Jews who were likely to disturb the peace of Europe did not reside in these States, but in Eastern Europe. Supposing Poland did not keep her covenants in regard to the Jews, a Roumanian representative would have the right to call attention to it, and vice versa. By this means equality would be established between the different States.

威尔逊幻想能够在东欧建立起一个保护少数民族的国际干预机制，比如罗马尼亚能干涉波兰迫害犹太人的行为。然而且不论这种机制是否可行，事实上罗马尼亚在迫害犹太人这一点上绝不逊色于波兰。

总结一下，威尔逊确实出于自己的进步与和平理念，对欧洲大陆的多民族帝国心存厌恶，尤其是在十四条中斩钉截铁地支持波兰建国。但旧帝国更多是自行解体，而非威尔逊亲自促成。更何况在官方层面上，威尔逊支持解体奥匈的行动速度甚至还不如英法意。一战后的威尔逊则多少有了一点影响民族国家划界的能力，但也无力改变民族国家之间的边界战争所制造的既成事实，比如威尔逊坚决反对罗马尼亚侵占特兰西瓦尼亚，但也无能为力（匈牙利人后来还是颇痛恨威尔逊）。所以我们很难指责威尔逊要为此后中东欧的动乱乃至二战负责。

无论如何，威尔逊的光辉形象还是印入了不少东欧人的民族记忆，尤其是波兰与捷克。两国一战后都有以威尔逊命名的广场和车站，以及威尔逊的雕像。二战中，德军抹去了这些痕迹，苏联占领时期也并未恢复，甚至是被冠以红色意识形态的名字。铁幕倒塌之后，威尔逊的冠名和雕像又回来了。同时，另一个美国总统在东欧也获得了类似威尔逊的名望：里根。这两个总统之间最大的共同点就是对于某一个/某几个“evil empire”的厉声谴责。恰好这些evil empire都是波兰与捷克人的压迫者，同时也是波兰与捷克建构自身西方身份的他者。当代第一世界“白左”因为威尔逊的种族歧视言论而抹去他的冠名，第二世界则对此嗤之以鼻。未来的第二世界到底会在意识形态与对“西方性”的认知上靠拢第一世界呢？还是会与第一世界一刀两断，彻底抛弃西方认同？可以拭目以待。至于威尔逊与里根的具体言行，各自到底在多大程度上推动了波兰与捷克的民族解放，在这种当代理念分歧中，其实并不重要。

（关于第二世界的各种定义，及其身份认同，可以参见这篇）

第三世界：五四运动、三一运动、阿姆利则惨案、“威尔逊时刻”

People will endure their tyrants for years, but they will tear their deliverers to pieces if a millennium is not created immediately. Yet you know, and I know, that these ancient wrongs, these present unhappinesses, are not to be remedied in a day or with a wave of the hand. What I seem to see—with all my heart I hope that I am wrong—is a tragedy of disappointment.

在第三世界，威尔逊【主义】的影响，要远大于威尔逊本人的政策。威尔逊本人预期自己的受众主要是在东欧而不是亚非殖民地，他对第三世界的关心也远少于东欧（所以本段不可能像前两段那样长篇引用威尔逊的发言）。但由于威尔逊政府的战时宣传工作过于卓越，第三世界因此对威尔逊的民族自决宣言产生了极高的期待，并最终触发了席卷第三世界的反殖民浪潮。但美国“辜负”了殖民地民族运动的期待，随之而来的则是殖民地世界对美国和整个西方自由主义意识形态的失望。

在此背景下，中国的五四运动不是一个孤立事件，它与韩国的三一运动、印度的阿姆利则惨案、埃及的华夫脱党运动（Wafd，直译“代表”）一起，构成了“威尔逊时刻”，即第三世界多个民族同时受威尔逊民族自决福音鼓舞，起而反抗殖民者的全球事件。

埃及

战前的埃及名义上是奥斯曼领土，奥斯曼对英宣战后，英国将其法律地位转为自己的保护国。美国从未向奥斯曼宣战，所以战争结束前美国并未承认英国对埃及法律地位的改动。而英国对埃及报纸上的国际新闻基本不作审查，所以威尔逊的民族自决福音以及美国的灯塔形象在埃及得到了广泛传播。

1919年3月，华夫脱党试图向巴黎派出代表团，在和会上谋求埃及的彻底独立，被英国当局监禁在马耳他，触发了埃及的一波革命浪潮。英国当局迫于压力释放了代表团。

但很快，埃及代表团在半路上得知，英国政府成功游说威尔逊承认了埃及的保护国地位。国务卿兰辛如是向贝尔福转述威尔逊的声明。威尔逊明示这不是秘密承认，并允许英国尽可能公开美国的承认，以平息埃及的暴乱：

I have delivered today to Mr.Balfour following letter.
In answer to your inquiry the President has authorized me to inform you that he recognizes the British protectorate over Egypt which was announced by His Majesty' s Government on November [December ] 18, 1914.
The President has no objection to this decision being made public as he understands that it may help in the restoration of order and in the prevention of further bloodshed in (Egypt)."
You will no doubt realize , my dear Mr. Minister , that in according this recognition , the President must necessarily reserve for further discussion the details of formal recognition together with the question of a modification of any rights of the United States which this decision on his part may entail.'
“You may confer with General Allenby as to the best method of giving publicity to the contents of this. In that connection, I think it is proper that you might indicate that the President and the American people have every sympathy with the legitimate desires of the Egyptian people for a further measure of self government but that they [deplore] the effort to obtain such rights by anarchy and violence."

印度

印度的民族运动在战争期间受到过不少美国的打击，在美国参战后的亲英情绪下，有一批旅美印度民族活动家被指控通敌。但威尔逊的民族自决福音还是在印度燃起了希望。

但面对印度民族运动家发来的请愿，威尔逊甚至都不愿亲自回应。毕竟连仅涉及到日裔移民的「人种差别撤废提案」，都能因为澳大利亚连带英国的反对而被威尔逊否决，更何况印度问题。威尔逊仅让自己的私人秘书作了不痛不痒的回复：

I am instructed by President Wilson, to acknowledge your letter and express to you his high appreciation of your kind thought of him and to assure that the matter of self-determination for India is a question which will be taken up in due time by the proper authorities.

比起埃及，印度有一点好，就是能向和会派遣（英国钦定的）代表。和会上的印度代表是一名土邦君主，但印度国民大会不认可其合法性。19年全年，民族运动席卷了全印，阿姆利则惨案正是在这一背景下发生的。

但威尔逊似乎不为所动，相反，在他19年9月于科罗拉多州所作的演讲中，他甚至赞扬了印度的现状。这是威尔逊中风前所作的最后一场公开演讲，意在说服公众接受美国加入国联。具体到这一段落的背景，则是有些美国人不满英联邦的各个领地在国联有各自的代表，威尔逊希望通过赞扬这些领地品质来说服公众接受：

The representatives of South Africa in Paris were two of the most distinguished generals of the Boer Army, two of the realest men I ever met, two men that could talk sober counsel and wise advice, along with the best statesmen in Europe. To exclude Gen. Botha and Gen. Smuts from the right to stand up in the parliament of the world and say something concerning the affairs of mankind would be absurd.
...
And what about Canada? Is not Canada a good neighbour? I ask you, Is not Canada more likely to agree with the United States than with Great Britain? Canada has a speaking part. And then, for the first time in the history of the world, that great voiceless multitude that throng hundreds of millions strong in India, has a voice, and I want to testify that some of the wisest and most dignified figures in the peace conference at Paris came from India, men who seemed to carry in their minds an older wisdom than the rest of us had, whose traditions ran back into so many of the unhappy fortunes of mankind that they seemed very useful counsellors as to how some ray of hope and some prospect of happiness could be opened to its people.

三一、五四与美国舆论

有关三一和五四运动的汉语材料已经足够丰富，所以我这里不再赘述。但中朝“威尔逊时刻”的特色在于，相对于其他殖民地的抗争，中朝的运动得到了威尔逊本人以及美国舆论的不少关注。^[2]而对于其他亚非殖民地议题，美国舆论基本“看都不看”。

其实这背后主要是一些共和党人，以及反对国联的思潮在起作用。某些共和党人不满威尔逊没有在和会代表团中带上一位足够显要的共和党人（如前总统老罗斯福），仅仅拿了一个花瓶充数。同时，日本在镇压三一运动过程中发生的「提岩里教会虐杀事件」，也通过加拿大传教士石好必（Dr. Frank W. Schofield）传达到美国媒体上，恶化了日本的形象。还有一些西海岸政客煽动反日裔移民情绪，声称加入国联会导致日裔移民涌入。所以甚至加州的一些一贯反对亚裔移民的共和党政客，此时为了党派斗争也开始跳出来用山东问题非难威尔逊政府。

至于威尔逊本人，他在巴黎和会现场并不怎么受国内舆论的影响，像国务卿兰辛，和豪斯“上校”^[3]之类的资深幕僚都很难影响到威尔逊的决策。威尔逊本人的首要目标其实是国联成立与战后和平大局，其他的山东问题、种族平等，虽然牺牲起来确实挺难受，但也不是不可妥协。

托管制度与文明等级论

巴黎和会上还有一个创新，即“托管制度”，主要适用于黎凡特、西太平洋诸岛等地。前两段提到过，威尔逊是文明等级论的信徒，而托管制度是则是其最佳体现：威尔逊认为落后民族需要经过先进国家的开化引导，达到一定的文明水平后才能建国。这一思想最初源自他对美国占领菲律宾的态度：

Freedom is not giving the same government to all people, but wisely discriminating and dispensing laws according to the advancement of a people…
‘‘The Consent of the Governed’’ is a part of constitutional theory which has, so far, been developed only or chiefly with regard to the adjustment or amendment of established systems of government. Its treatment with regard to the affairs of politically undeveloped races, which have not yet learned the rudiments of order and self-control, has, I believe, received next to no attention. The ‘‘consent’’ of the Filipinos and the ‘‘consent’’ of the American colonists to government, for example, are two radically different things,—not in theory, perhaps, but in practice.

国联章程第22条也根据托管地的“文明水平”，将其分为三个级别：前奥斯曼领土为第一级，德属中非殖民地为第二级，太平洋诸岛与南部非洲殖民地为第三级。受托列强根据托管地的“文明级别”享有不同的权限，一级托管地的独立地位可以被承认，受托列强只应“在行政上辅佐之”，而在三级托管地，受托国则享有类似主权领土的权力。

（国联章程原文可参见此链接）

从现代价值观来看，我们很容易把托管制度当作是殖民统治的遮羞布，但其实托管制度在理念上是对传统殖民的一个很大的背离：殖民地的统治者不再是基于武力征服获得统治权，也不再声称对殖民地但永久统治，而是被国联委托，需要向国联与殖民地人民负责，并在形式上承诺殖民地的最终独立。这种理念上的转换，后来反而损害了殖民统治的道义合法性，比如中东的民族运动家通过向国联上访来向全世界揭发英法所谓“文明开化”的虚伪性，在国内外都赢得了很强的道义资本。

但同时也应当注意到，殖民地民族运动家自己也是被文明等级论所浸染的，他们没有直接否定西方建构的文明鄙视链，相反，当时的民族运动家极力证明本民族的文明水平配得上独立建国。叙利亚的阿拉伯民族运动家常说，叙利亚不比东欧更落后，凭什么不能建国而必须被托管。印度的活动家则哀叹自己在殖民体系下的地位“就跟黑人一样”。埃及则宣称自己文明的古老，“不是野蛮人，黑人或者红人”，但同时又对苏丹的独立思潮重拳出击，宣称“埃及给苏丹带来了文明开化”，“南北自古同属尼罗河共同体”等等，还在自己的政治讽刺漫画中把苏丹描绘成野蛮黑人的形象。

（卡瓦拉王朝^[4]初期的埃及征服了苏丹，并在苏丹建立起了一套埃及上层统治的种族权力结构，甚至还向埃及本土出口奴隶，这一结构在英国占领埃及时期维持了下来。苏丹有很强的反埃及情绪，这点被英国积极利用，埃及的奴隶贸易是英国当局宣传自己开化使命的重要论据。埃及人的洗地方法就是，苏丹人野蛮，带来埃及是给他们开化，伊斯兰世界的奴隶制比美洲温和得多）

尾声

虽然短期来看，殖民地人民的期望落空了，美国和威尔逊在很多人眼里成了个大骗子。但长期来看，“民族自决福音”触发的全球反帝运动还是严重打击了殖民统治的政治合法性，揭露了殖民统治者的虚伪，教育了第三世界的知识分子，促使反帝运动激进化。对此，当时的有识之士，乃至威尔逊本人，对此都有预见。

威尔逊的宣传负责人 George Creel 如是回忆他与威尔逊的一场对话：

One evening, as we walked the deck, I spoke to the President of the tremendous help that his addresses had been to us in our work—of the wholehearted response of the people of the earth, their gladness in his words, the joyful liberation of their thought. . . .
The President stood silent for quite a while, and when he turned to me at last his face was as bleak as the gray stretch of sunless water.
‘‘It is a great thing that you have done,’’ he said, ‘‘but I am wondering if you have not unconsciously spun a net for me from which there is no escape. It is to America that the whole world turns to-day, not only with its wrongs, but with its hopes and grievances. The hungry expect us to feed them, the roofless look to us for shelter, the sick of heart and body depend on us for cure. All of these expectations have in them the quality of terrible urgency. There must be no delay. It has been so always. People will endure their tyrants for years, but they will tear their deliverers to pieces if a millennium is not created immediately. Yet you know, and I know, that these ancient wrongs, these present unhappinesses, are not to be remedied in a day or with a wave of the hand. What I seem to see—with all my heart I hope that I am wrong—is a tragedy of disappointment.’’

时任美国公使芮恩施（Paul Samuel Reinsch），对于威尔逊福音及其幻灭在中国的可能后果，做了如下的预言：

The eager attention which has been paid to your words, the trust and confidence which the Chinese feel in your policies and aims, are evidence of a spontaneous desire to follow along the path of American action and aspiration which you have made so clear to the world. If China should be disappointed in her confidence at the present time, the consequences of such disillusionment on her moral and political development would be disastrous, and we instead of looking across the Pacific towards a Chinese Nation sympathetic to our ideals would be confronted with a vast materialistic military organization under ruthless control.

同时，一位不知名的湖南青年，正如芮恩施所预言的那样，此时已经放弃了对美国的幻想，正游走在“危险思想”的边缘。他此时的思考，挺适合作为本篇回答的结尾：

可怜的威尔逊：威尔逊在巴黎，好象热锅上的蚂蚁，不知怎样才好？四围包满了克勒满沙，路易乔治，牧野伸显，欧兰杜一类的强盗。所听的，不外得到若干土地，收赔若干金钱。所做的，不外不能伸出己见的种种会议。有一天的路透电说：“威尔逊总统卒已赞成克勒满沙不使德国加入国际同盟的意见”。我看了“卒已赞成”四字，为他气闷了大半天。可怜的威尔逊！
…
研究过激党：阿富汗侵印度，俄过激党为之主谋，过激党到了南亚洲。高丽的“呼声革命”正盛吋，亦有过激党参与之说，则已到了东亚。过激党这么厉害！各位也要研究研究，到底是个什么东西？切不可闭着眼睛，只管瞎说，“等于洪水猛兽”“抵制”“拒绝”等等的空话。一光眼，过激觉布备了全国，相惊而走，已没得走处了！

（对《威尔逊时刻》一书的简要译介，可见下文）

参考

1. ^ 可以参见 Cold War Civil Rights 一书
2. ^ 此处使用“朝鲜”是因为己未独立宣言用的民族自称就是“朝鲜”，不代表本人对现代半岛政治的立场。
3. ^ Colonel House，“上校”是外号，而非军衔，其本人从未服役。豪斯上校在威尔逊政府中并无官方身份，但却是威尔逊颇倚重的幕僚。
4. ^ 源自穆罕默德·阿里的原籍卡瓦拉（Kavala），今希腊北部沿海城市。这一称呼多见于土耳其语（Kavalalılar Hanedanı）

傻子一枚。搞得美国花了一大笔军费，死了不少人的情况下。最后既没拿回几分钱贷款，又没抢到一块殖民地。简直是国际活雷锋，可谓美国在帝国主义道路上交的最大一笔学费。。。。

所谓升米恩斗米仇。明知道不打败英法，则英法必然绞尽脑汁赖账的情况下，还跟英法站到一条战壕。不是傻子是啥？

何止傻子，简直是特大卖国贼啊！

二战前美国闹孤立主义，真不是没有原因的。。。。。